Quantum Risk Assessment Framework

Executive Summary

As quantum computing advances toward practical applications, organizations and governments face unprecedented security challenges. This policy brief presents a comprehensive framework for assessing and mitigating quantum computing risks across cryptographic, computational, and governance dimensions.

Key Findings

• Current public key cryptography systems will be vulnerable to quantum attacks within 5-10 years
• Critical infrastructure sectors have varying levels of quantum readiness, with financial services leading and healthcare lagging
• Post-quantum cryptography standards are emerging but implementation timelines are concerning
• Governance frameworks for quantum computing remain underdeveloped at national and international levels

Risk Assessment Framework

Our framework provides a structured approach to quantum risk assessment across three dimensions:

1. Cryptographic Vulnerability Assessment

This dimension evaluates the vulnerability of existing cryptographic systems to quantum attacks, considering factors such as key length, algorithm type, and implementation details.

2. Computational Impact Analysis

This dimension assesses how quantum computing capabilities might impact computational systems, including potential disruptions to existing algorithms, data processing methods, and computational infrastructure.

3. Governance Readiness Evaluation

This dimension examines the readiness of governance frameworks to address quantum computing challenges, including regulatory preparedness, standards development, and international cooperation mechanisms.

Recommendations

Based on our analysis, we recommend the following actions for policymakers, organizations, and researchers:

For Policymakers:

• Develop national quantum strategies that include risk assessment frameworks
• Establish international coordination mechanisms for quantum governance
• Invest in quantum-resistant cryptography research and implementation

For Organizations:

• Conduct quantum risk assessments using the proposed framework
• Develop quantum transition plans for critical systems
• Implement crypto-agility in system designs to facilitate future updates

For Researchers:

• Accelerate development of quantum-resistant cryptographic standards
• Explore quantum-safe alternatives for vulnerable systems
• Develop metrics for measuring quantum readiness across sectors

Conclusion

The quantum computing revolution presents both opportunities and risks. By adopting a structured risk assessment framework, stakeholders can prepare for the quantum future while mitigating potential disruptions. This policy brief provides a starting point for that essential work.